Imbonakalo yeCandelo leShishini leAluminiyam lika-2026: Ubonelelo olupheleleyo, iindleko ezinyukayo

I. Ubonelelo lweBauxite Olwaneleyo Nangona Iindleko Zokuthumela Zinyuka

Imveliso ye-bauxite yelizwe lam ngoFebruwari yayiyi-4.7567 yezigidi zeetoni, yehle nge-10.92% inyanga nenyanga kodwa yenyuka nge-6.13% unyaka nonyaka, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba kukho ubuninzi bemveliso yasekhaya. Ngokuphathelele i-ore engeniswe kwamanye amazwe, ilizwe lam lingenise i-14.67 yezigidi zeetoni ze-bauxite ngoDisemba, yehle nge-2.88% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-2.02% unyaka nonyaka, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba kukho ubuninzi bemveliso. Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthumela kubangele ukunyuka kancinci kweendleko zokuthumela ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli ekrwada.

Ngokuphathelele umthamo omtsha, ukwanda okukhulu kwimveliso ye-bauxite yehlabathi ngo-2026 kuya kuba seGuinea. Ngokusekelwe ekunyukeni okulindelekileyo kwimveliso evela kumashishini akhoyo, aqaliswe kwakhona, nawandisiweyo eGuinea, ukunikezelwa kwe-bauxite kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke malunga ne-40-50 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2026. Ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka okunokwenzeka kwimigaqo-nkqubo, ukunikezelwa kwemarike ye-bauxite kulindeleke ukuba kuhlale kuninzi ngo-2026.

II. Uxinzelelo lwe-Alumina Supply luhlala lukhona, kodwa iindleko ziyanyuka

NgoFebruwari, imveliso ye-alumina yelizwe lam ekumgangatho wesinyithi yayiziitoni eziyi-6.6002 yezigidi, yehla nge-10.63% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-0.05% ngonyaka. Ukuncitshiswa okukhulu kwemveliso yinkampani emantla eTshayina phakathi kuFebruwari, kunye nokugcinwa kwezixhobo kunye nokuphuculwa kwemigca yemveliso ngamanye amaqumrhu, kunye nokunciphisa imithwalo yokusebenza ngamanye amaqumrhu emazantsi, kukhokelele ekuncipheni okuncinci kwimveliso iyonke yenyanga. NgoMatshi, amanye amaqumrhu angaqhubeka nokulungiswa kunye nokuphuculwa kwemigca yemveliso, kwaye eli shishini liza kungena kwinqanaba lokususa isitokhwe. Nangona kunjalo, amandla amatsha emveliso eGuangxi akhululwa kancinci, enciphisa ukuncitshiswa okuthile, kwaye amandla okusebenza ngokubanzi kulindeleke ukuba abonise ukuhla okucothayo.

Ngokuphathelele umthamo omtsha, inani elikhulu lomthamo we-alumina lisaza kukhutshwa ngaphakathi nangaphandle ngo-2026. Kuqikelelwa ukuba malunga ne-15 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo omtsha wasekhaya ziya kongezwa, ngakumbi kwiphondo laseGuangxi naseHebei, ngelixa malunga ne-7.5 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo omtsha waphesheya kwezilwandle ziya kongezwa, ikakhulu eIndiya, nto leyo ebangela uxinzelelo olukhulu kwicala lobonelelo lwe-alumina.

NgoDisemba, ilizwe lam lithumele ngaphandle iitoni ezingama-205,900 ze-alumina, ukunyuka nge-22.56% inyanga nenyanga kunye ne-9.35% unyaka nonyaka, ngelixa lithumela ngaphandle iitoni ezingama-227,800, ukwehla nge-1.98% inyanga nenyanga kodwa ukunyuka nge-1389% unyaka nonyaka. Ukungeniswa okuseleyo ngoDisemba bekuziitoni ezingama-21,900. Ngokuphathelele iindawo zokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle i-alumina, uMbindi Mpuma uthatha isiqingatha esincinci.

Ngokuphathelele impahla, ukusukela nge-5 kaMatshi, impahla iyonke ye-alumina yelizwe lam ifikelele kwi-5.722 yezigidi zeetoni, iqhubeka nokukhula. Ukwanda kwavela ikakhulu kwimpahla ethengiswayo kunye nempahla yezibuko, ngelixa impahla yexesha elizayo inyuke ngaphezulu kwe-330,000 yeetoni.

III. Isishwankathelo

Ngokubanzi, imeko eMbindi Mpuma ayikabi nefuthe elikhulu ekunikezelweni kwe-bauxite kwihlabathi liphela. Nangona kunjalo, ngokwembono yokuthutha, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kokuthunyelwa kwempahla elwandle kunyuse iindleko zokuthutha i-bauxite, ngaloo ndlela kuxhasa amaxabiso e-ore angeniswa ngaphakathi kwelizwe. Ngokuphathelele i-alumina, ekubeni uMbindi Mpuma ungenisa i-alumina ngaphandle, ukuphazamiseka kwezothutho kukhokelele ekwandeni kokunikezelwa kwempahla evela kwimimandla engeyiyo eMbindi Mpuma. Nangona kunjalo, ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-caustic soda kunye nezinto eziluhlaza, inkxaso yeendleko ze-alumina nayo iqinisiwe. Ngokuphathelele i-aluminium ye-electrolytic, uMbindi Mpuma uthumela i-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngaphandle, kwaye imeko yezopolitiko inefuthe elikhulu kumashishini e-aluminium ye-electrolytic asekuhlaleni. Ngokwembono yokunikezelwa kwempahla kwihlabathi liphela, oku sele kunefuthe elikhulu ekunikezelweni kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic, enefuthe elicacileyo ngakumbi.

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